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Titolo:
INCIDENCE AND PREVALENCE OF ILLEGAL DRUG-USE IN SWITZERLAND IN THE 1980S AND EARLY 1990S - AN ANALYTICAL STUDY
Autore:
KNOLLE H;
Indirizzi:
UNIV BERN,DIV SOCIAL & PREVENT MED,FINKENHUBELWEG 12 CH-3012 BERN SWITZERLAND
Titolo Testata:
Substance use & misuse
fascicolo: 10, volume: 32, anno: 1997,
pagine: 1349 - 1368
SICI:
1082-6084(1997)32:10<1349:IAPOID>2.0.ZU;2-#
Fonte:
ISI
Lingua:
ENG
Soggetto:
POPULATION; SIZE;
Keywords:
POPULATION ESTIMATES; ILLEGAL DRUG USERS; LAW ENFORCEMENT DATA; COMPARTMENT MODEL; TRUNCATED POISSON;
Tipo documento:
Article
Natura:
Periodico
Settore Disciplinare:
Physical, Chemical & Earth Sciences
Science Citation Index Expanded
Science Citation Index Expanded
Science Citation Index Expanded
Citazioni:
17
Recensione:
Indirizzi per estratti:
Citazione:
H. Knolle, "INCIDENCE AND PREVALENCE OF ILLEGAL DRUG-USE IN SWITZERLAND IN THE 1980S AND EARLY 1990S - AN ANALYTICAL STUDY", Substance use & misuse, 32(10), 1997, pp. 1349-1368

Abstract

The Swiss registry of charges concerning illegal trade and consumption of narcotics offers the possibility of monitoring the incidence and prevalence of illegal drug use in Switzerland. Of course, the relationbetween the number of charges against users of illegal drugs and the number of users is unknown and may vary in time and space. This makes it difficult to estimate the prevalence of consumption from law enforcement data, but it does not hinder the estimation of incidence if the numbers of first and subsequent charges are known. This is demonstrated by employing a dynamic model with two compartments which represent the not yet charged and the charged users, In contrast to methods whichrely on treatment admission data, the new method can detect changes of incidence without time lag. Prevalence estimates can be obtained if the charge frequency distribution is known, as it is for Switzerland from 1990 to 1994. A theoretical distribution is fitted to the data which are available for all illegal drugs as well as for heroin and/or cocaine, This leads to estimates of the populations of users of illegal drugs in general and of heroin and/or cocaine.

ASDD Area Sistemi Dipartimentali e Documentali, Università di Bologna, Catalogo delle riviste ed altri periodici
Documento generato il 12/07/20 alle ore 08:59:23