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Titolo:
Using climate forecasts for water management: Arizona and the 1997-1998 ElNino
Autore:
Pagano, TC; Hartmann, HC; Sorooshian, S;
Indirizzi:
Univ Arizona, Dept Hydrol & Water Resources, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA Univ Arizona Tucson AZ USA 85721 & Water Resources, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA
Titolo Testata:
JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN WATER RESOURCES ASSOCIATION
fascicolo: 5, volume: 37, anno: 2001,
pagine: 1139 - 1153
SICI:
1093-474X(200110)37:5<1139:UCFFWM>2.0.ZU;2-E
Fonte:
ISI
Lingua:
ENG
Soggetto:
WESTERN UNITED-STATES; VARIABILITY; PREDICTIONS; PATTERNS; RIVER;
Keywords:
water management; climatology; water policy/regulation/decision making; seasonal forecast use; El Nino/Southern Oscillation;
Tipo documento:
Article
Natura:
Periodico
Settore Disciplinare:
Agriculture,Biology & Environmental Sciences
Citazioni:
52
Recensione:
Indirizzi per estratti:
Indirizzo: Pagano, TC Univ Arizona, Dept Hydrol & Water Resources, POB 210011, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA Univ Arizona POB 210011 Tucson AZ USA 85721 ucson, AZ 85721 USA
Citazione:
T.C. Pagano et al., "Using climate forecasts for water management: Arizona and the 1997-1998 ElNino", J AM WAT RE, 37(5), 2001, pp. 1139-1153

Abstract

Unrelenting pressure on limited surface water supplies requires increasingly sophisticated water management approaches. Climate forecasts of seasonalprecipitation and temperature are potentially useful, but the operational water management community currently underutilizes them. However, some agencies in Arizona took unprecedented advantage of forecasts for a potentiallywet winter during the 1997-1998 El Nino event. This study investigates useof this information through a series of semistructured in-depth interviewswith key personnel from agencies responsible for emergency management and water supply; their jurisdictions ranged from urban to rural and local to regional. Interviews investigated information acquisition, interpretation, and incorporation into specific decisions and actions. While unprecedented actions were taken by some water management agencies and no agencies implemented inappropriate measures, some missed opportunities for more effective response, primarily through inaction. This study reveals a variety of technical factors and institutional characteristics affecting forecast use. Studyfindings emphasize the need for: (a) closer ongoing relationships between forecast producers and users, (b) increased institutional flexibility to exploit the increasing skill of seasonal climate forecasts, (c) demonstrationprojects of effective forecast use, and (d) a regional forum to facilitateinformation transfer between the hydroclimatic research community and operational water managers.

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Documento generato il 03/12/20 alle ore 21:55:49