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Titolo:
Continuity and transformation in Northeast Asia and the end of American exceptionalism: A long-range outlook and US policy implications
Autore:
Kim, JY;
Indirizzi:
Univ Maryland, College Pk, MD 20742 USA Univ Maryland College Pk MD USA 20742 Maryland, College Pk, MD 20742 USA
Titolo Testata:
KOREAN JOURNAL OF DEFENSE ANALYSIS
fascicolo: 1, volume: 13, anno: 2001,
pagine: 229 - 261
SICI:
1016-3271(200123)13:1<229:CATINA>2.0.ZU;2-G
Fonte:
ISI
Lingua:
ENG
Tipo documento:
Article
Natura:
Periodico
Settore Disciplinare:
Social & Behavioral Sciences
Citazioni:
64
Recensione:
Indirizzi per estratti:
Indirizzo: Kim, JY Harvard Univ, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA Harvard Univ Cambridge MA USA 02138 Univ, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA
Citazione:
J.Y. Kim, "Continuity and transformation in Northeast Asia and the end of American exceptionalism: A long-range outlook and US policy implications", KOR J DEF A, 13(1), 2001, pp. 229-261

Abstract

In the next half century Northeast Asia will undergo a profound transformation. Yet, enduring continuities will remain that will continue to fundamentally influence the emerging security order. Perhaps the most important phenomenon will be not only the rise of China, but the concomitant relative decline of the US that will lead to the end of the special role and position the LIS has occupied since 1945. Korea and China will both be unified, removing the two most critical hot spots in the region. China will become a rich developed nation and will more aggressively seek its perceived rightful great-power position in the region and the world. Unified Korea will attemptto remain a neutral nexus in the region, but will be unable to do so and instead be inevitably drawn to the Chinese sphere unless the US takes activemeasures to keep it in the US camp. Japan will be ravaged by a ruinous demographic trend that exacerbates a poor geographical basis for a great powerand become a second-rate power more than ever dependent on the US for security. The emergent order will be a regional bipolar balance of power between China and the US. Russia and unified Korea are possible members of the Chinese bloc while Japan will be the critical partner to the US bloc. The balance of power situation will be structurally stable and contribute to the maintenance of peace and stability if allowed to mature.

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Documento generato il 10/04/20 alle ore 01:12:59