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Titolo:
Why is p = .90 better than p = .70? Preference for definitive predictions by lay consumers of probability judgments
Autore:
Keren, G; Teigen, KH;
Indirizzi:
Eindhoven Univ Technol, Fac Technol Management, NL-5600 MB Eindhoven, Netherlands Eindhoven Univ Technol Eindhoven Netherlands NL-5600 MB ven, Netherlands Univ Tromso, Dept Psychol, N-9037 Tromso, Norway Univ Tromso Tromso Norway N-9037 so, Dept Psychol, N-9037 Tromso, Norway
Titolo Testata:
PSYCHONOMIC BULLETIN & REVIEW
fascicolo: 2, volume: 8, anno: 2001,
pagine: 191 - 202
SICI:
1069-9384(200106)8:2<191:WIP=.B>2.0.ZU;2-Q
Fonte:
ISI
Lingua:
ENG
Soggetto:
UNCERTAINTY; IRRATIONALITY; CALIBRATION; DECISION;
Tipo documento:
Article
Natura:
Periodico
Settore Disciplinare:
Social & Behavioral Sciences
Citazioni:
33
Recensione:
Indirizzi per estratti:
Indirizzo: Keren, G Eindhoven Univ Technol, Fac Technol Management, POB 513, NL-5600 MB Eindhoven, Netherlands Eindhoven Univ Technol POB 513 Eindhoven Netherlands NL-5600 MB
Citazione:
G. Keren e K.H. Teigen, "Why is p = .90 better than p = .70? Preference for definitive predictions by lay consumers of probability judgments", PSYCHON B R, 8(2), 2001, pp. 191-202

Abstract

What do people regard as an informative and valuable probability statement? This article reports four experiments that show participants to have a clear preference for more extreme and higher probabilities over less extreme and lower ones. This pattern emerged in Experiment 1, in which no context was provided, and was further explored in Experiment 2 within a positive anda negative context. The findings were further confirmed in Experiment 3, which employed a Bayesian framework with revisions of opinions. Finally, Experiment 4 showed how preference for high probabilities can lead people to prefer an overconfident to a more well-calibrated (accurate) forecaster. Theresults are interpreted as manifestations of a search for definitive predictions principle, which asserts that high probabilities are preferred to medium ones and often favored over the corresponding complementary low probabilities on the basis of their capacity to predict the occurrence of single outcomes.

ASDD Area Sistemi Dipartimentali e Documentali, Università di Bologna, Catalogo delle riviste ed altri periodici
Documento generato il 29/03/20 alle ore 01:40:40