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Titolo:
Global response of terrestrial ecosystem structure and function to CO2 andclimate change: results from six dynamic global vegetation models
Autore:
Cramer, W; Bondeau, A; Woodward, FI; Prentice, IC; Betts, RA; Brovkin, V; Cox, PM; Fisher, V; Foley, JA; Friend, AD; Kucharik, C; Lomas, MR; Ramankutty, N; Sitch, S; Smith, B; White, A; Young-Molling, C;
Indirizzi:
Potsdam Inst Klimafolgenforsch eV, Telegrafenberg, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany Potsdam Inst Klimafolgenforsch eV Potsdam Germany D-14412 tsdam, Germany Univ Sheffield, Dept Anim & Plant Sci, Sheffield S10 2TN, S Yorkshire, England Univ Sheffield Sheffield S Yorkshire England S10 2TN S Yorkshire, England Max Planck Inst Biogeochem, D-07701 Jena, Germany Max Planck Inst Biogeochem Jena Germany D-07701 m, D-07701 Jena, Germany Meteorol Off, Hadley Ctr Climate Predict & Res, Bracknell RG12 2SY, Berks,England Meteorol Off Bracknell Berks England RG12 2SY ell RG12 2SY, Berks,England Univ Wisconsin, Inst Environm Studies, Madison, WI 53706 USA Univ Wisconsin Madison WI USA 53706 vironm Studies, Madison, WI 53706 USA Inst Terr Ecol, Penicuik EH26 0QB, Midlothian, Scotland Inst Terr Ecol Penicuik Midlothian Scotland EH26 0QB Midlothian, Scotland Univ Lund, Dept Ecol, Climate Impacts Grp, S-22362 Lund, Sweden Univ LundLund Sweden S-22362 Climate Impacts Grp, S-22362 Lund, Sweden
Titolo Testata:
GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY
fascicolo: 4, volume: 7, anno: 2001,
pagine: 357 - 373
SICI:
1354-1013(200104)7:4<357:GROTES>2.0.ZU;2-B
Fonte:
ISI
Lingua:
ENG
Soggetto:
ATMOSPHERIC CO2; STOMATAL CONDUCTANCE; BIOSPHERE MODEL; CARBON-DIOXIDE; CANOPY REFLECTANCE; FOREST ECOSYSTEMS; PLANT MIGRATION; BOUNDARY-LAYER; PHOTOSYNTHESIS; TRANSPIRATION;
Keywords:
dynamic global vegetation model; global carbon cycle;
Tipo documento:
Article
Natura:
Periodico
Settore Disciplinare:
Agriculture,Biology & Environmental Sciences
Citazioni:
88
Recensione:
Indirizzi per estratti:
Indirizzo: Cramer, W Potsdam Inst Klimafolgenforsch eV, Telegrafenberg, POB 60 12 03,D-14412 Potsdam, Germany Potsdam Inst Klimafolgenforsch eV POB 60 12 03 Potsdam Germany D-14412
Citazione:
W. Cramer et al., "Global response of terrestrial ecosystem structure and function to CO2 andclimate change: results from six dynamic global vegetation models", GL CHANGE B, 7(4), 2001, pp. 357-373

Abstract

The possible responses of ecosystem processes to rising atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate change are illustrated using six dynamic global vegetation models that explicitly represent the interactions of ecosystem carbon and water exchanges with vegetation dynamics. The models are driven by the IPCC IS92a scenario of rising CO2 (Wigley et al. 1991), and by climate changes resulting from effective CO2 concentrations corresponding to IS92a, simulated by the coupled ocean atmosphere model HadCM2-SUL. Simulations with changing CO2 alone show a widely distributed terrestrial carbon sink of 1.4-3.8 Pg C y(-1) during the 1990s, rising to 3.7-8.6 Pg C y(-1) a century later. Simulations including climate change show a reduced sink both today (0.6-3.0 Pg C y(-1)) and a century later (0.3-6.6 Pg C y(-1)) as a result of the impacts of climate change on NEP of tropical and southern hemisphere ecosystems. In all models, the rate of increase of NEP begins to level off around 2030 as a consequence of the 'diminishing return' of physiological CO2 effects at high CO2 concentrations. Four out of the six models show a further, climate-induced decline in NEP resulting from increased heterotrophic respiration and declining tropical NPP after 2050. Changes in vegetation structure influence the magnitude and spatial pattern of the carbon sink and, in combination with changing climate, also freshwater availability (runoff). It is shown that these changes, once set in motion, would continue to evolve for at least a century even if atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate could be instantaneously stabilized. The results should be considered illustrative in the sense that the choice of CO2 concentration scenario wasarbitrary and only one climate model scenario was used. However, the results serve to indicate a range of possible biospheric responses to CO2 and climate change. They reveal major uncertainties about the response of NEP to climate change resulting, primarily, from differences in the way that modelled global NPP responds to a changing climate. The simulations illustrate, however, that the magnitude of possible biospheric influences on the carbonbalance requires that this factor is taken into account for future scenarios of atmospheric CO2 and climate change.

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Documento generato il 13/07/20 alle ore 04:15:57