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Titolo:
An assessment of the likelihood of occurrence, and the damage potential ofdomino effect (chain of accidents) in a typical cluster of industries
Autore:
Khan, FI; Abbasi, SA;
Indirizzi:
Pondicherry Univ, Ctr Pollut Control & Energy Technol, Pondicherry 605014,India Pondicherry Univ Pondicherry India 605014 hnol, Pondicherry 605014,India Mem Univ Newfoundland, Fac Engn & Appl Sci, St Johns, NF A1B 3X5, Canada Mem Univ Newfoundland St Johns NF Canada A1B 3X5 ohns, NF A1B 3X5, Canada
Titolo Testata:
JOURNAL OF LOSS PREVENTION IN THE PROCESS INDUSTRIES
fascicolo: 4, volume: 14, anno: 2001,
pagine: 283 - 306
SICI:
0950-4230(200107)14:4<283:AAOTLO>2.0.ZU;2-X
Fonte:
ISI
Lingua:
ENG
Keywords:
domino effect; chain of accidents; industrial disaster; risk assessment; explosion; fire;
Tipo documento:
Article
Natura:
Periodico
Settore Disciplinare:
Engineering, Computing & Technology
Citazioni:
13
Recensione:
Indirizzi per estratti:
Indirizzo: Abbasi, SA Pondicherry Univ, Ctr Pollut Control & Energy Technol, Pondicherry 605014,India Pondicherry Univ Pondicherry India 605014 cherry 605014,India
Citazione:
F.I. Khan e S.A. Abbasi, "An assessment of the likelihood of occurrence, and the damage potential ofdomino effect (chain of accidents) in a typical cluster of industries", J LOSS PREV, 14(4), 2001, pp. 283-306

Abstract

in the context of risk assessment and loss prevention in chemical process industries, the term domino effect denotes 'chain of accidents: or situations when a fire/explosion/missile/toxic load generated by an accident in oneunit in an industry causes secondary and higher order accidents in other units. Most of the past risk assessment studies deal with accident in a single industry, more so in one of the units of an industry. But, often, accident in one unit can cause a secondary accident in a nearby unit, which in turn may trigger a tertiary accident, and so on. The probability of occurrence and adverse impacts of such 'domino' or 'cascading effects are increasingdue to increasing congestion in industrial complexes and increasing density of human population around such complexes. The multi-accident catastrophewhich occurred in a refinery at Vishakhapatnam, India, on 14 September 1997, claiming 60 lives and causing loss of property worth over Rs 600 million, is the most recent example of the damage potential of domino effect [LeesF.P. Loss prevention in process industries, 2nd ed. Butterworths. 1-3, London; Khan, F.I., & Abbasi, S.A. (1999a). Major accidents in process industries and an analysis of their causes and consequences. Journal of Loss Prevention in Process Industries, 12, 361-378: Khan, F.I., & Abbasi, S.A. (1999b). The worst chemical industry accident of 1990's-what happened and what might have been: A quantitative study. Proress Safety. Progress, 18, 135-145]. Recently, we have proposed a systematic methodology called 'domino effectanalysis' (DEA). A computer automated tool DOMIFFECT has also been developed by us based on DEA [Khan, F.I., & Abbasi, S.A. (1998a). Models for domino effect analysis in chemical process industries. Process Safer?: Progress - AIChE, 17 (2), 107-113; Khan, F.I., & Abbasi, S.A. (1998b). DOMIFFECT (DOMIno eFFECT): a new software for domino effect analysis in chemical processindustries. Environmental Modelling and Software, 13, 163-177.]. The methodology is based on deterministic models used in conjunction with probabilistic analysis. This paper illustrates the application of DEA and DOMIFFECT to an industrial complex. Out of 16 credible accident scenarios envisaged infour closely situated industries namely Madras Fertilisers Limited (MFL), SPIC-Heavy Chemical Division (SPIC-HCD). Manali Petrochemical Limited (MPL), and Tamilnadu Petroproducts Limited (TPL). ten scenarios forecast domino effect. Further analysis reveals that accidents in the ammonia synthesis unit, secondary reformer, and urea reactor of MFL may cause domino effect. Similarly, accidents in the storage units of propylene oxide, ethylene oxide and mono propylene glycol at MPL, hydrogen storage units at SPIC-HCD, and the propylene oxide and fuel oil storage units of TPL are likely to cause a domino effect. The consequences of all these credible accidents have also been forecast. The paper makes a strong case for making DEA an integral partof all risk assessment initiatives. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Documento generato il 23/09/20 alle ore 10:47:54