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Titolo:
A statistical measure of severity of Ei Nino events
Autore:
Yue, S;
Indirizzi:
Environm Canada, Meteorol Serv Canada, Ontario Reg, Burlington, ON L7R 4A6, Canada Environm Canada Burlington ON Canada L7R 4A6 rlington, ON L7R 4A6, Canada
Titolo Testata:
STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT
fascicolo: 2, volume: 15, anno: 2001,
pagine: 153 - 172
SICI:
1436-3240(200104)15:2<153:ASMOSO>2.0.ZU;2-7
Fonte:
ISI
Lingua:
ENG
Soggetto:
SOUTHERN OSCILLATION; EL-NINO; RAINFALL; IMPACT; MODEL;
Keywords:
El Nino; Southern Oscillation Index (SOI); bivariate extreme distribution; Gumbel logistic model; joint distribution; conditional distribution; correlation;
Tipo documento:
Article
Natura:
Periodico
Settore Disciplinare:
Agriculture,Biology & Environmental Sciences
Engineering, Computing & Technology
Citazioni:
24
Recensione:
Indirizzi per estratti:
Indirizzo: Yue, S Environm Canada, Meteorol Serv Canada, Ontario Reg, 867 Lakeshore Rd,POB 5050, Burlington, ON L7R 4A6, Canada Environm Canada 867 Lakeshore Rd,POB 5050 Burlington ON Canada L7R 4A6
Citazione:
S. Yue, "A statistical measure of severity of Ei Nino events", STOCH ENV R, 15(2), 2001, pp. 153-172

Abstract

El Nino exerts a significant influence on climate, and hence tremendously affects human activities. The monthly Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is used to quantify El Nino events. The severity of El Nino is determined by a combination of its maximum intensity, magnitude, and duration that may be mutually correlated. However, the past analyses on the statistical properties of Ei Nino events either only take into account their occurrences or nonoccurrences, or simply rank El Nino events by a few categories such as most severe, severe, and less severe. Apparently, these analyses can not give a complete description of El Nino events. This article sheds new light on thestatistical properties of El Nino events. The Gumbel logistic model, a bivariate extreme value distribution with Gumbel marginals is employed to analyze joint probability distributions of El Nino maximum intensity and magnitude, El Nino magnitude and duration, as well as El Nino maximum intensity and duration. Based on the marginal distributions of El Nino maximum intensity, magnitude, and duration, the joint distributions, conditional distributions, and associated return periods of two Of these El Nino characteristicscan be readily obtained. Results indicate that statistics of El Nino events can be represented by the proposed method. The proposed method provides amuch more detailed description of the properties of El Nino events than dothe past approaches. It is also prior to single-variable frequency analysis.

ASDD Area Sistemi Dipartimentali e Documentali, Università di Bologna, Catalogo delle riviste ed altri periodici
Documento generato il 13/07/20 alle ore 07:32:07