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Titolo:
A PROCESS FOR EVALUATING EXPLORATION PROSPECTS
Autore:
OTIS RM; SCHNEIDERMANN N;
Indirizzi:
CHEVRON OVERSEAS PETR INC,POB 5046 SAN RAMON CA 94583
Titolo Testata:
AAPG bulletin
fascicolo: 7, volume: 81, anno: 1997,
pagine: 1087 - 1109
SICI:
0149-1423(1997)81:7<1087:APFEEP>2.0.ZU;2-7
Fonte:
ISI
Lingua:
ENG
Soggetto:
PETROLEUM SYSTEMS; PLAYS;
Tipo documento:
Article
Natura:
Periodico
Settore Disciplinare:
Science Citation Index Expanded
Science Citation Index Expanded
Science Citation Index Expanded
Citazioni:
28
Recensione:
Indirizzi per estratti:
Citazione:
R.M. Otis e N. Schneidermann, "A PROCESS FOR EVALUATING EXPLORATION PROSPECTS", AAPG bulletin, 81(7), 1997, pp. 1087-1109

Abstract

In 1989, Chevron Overseas Petroleum, Inc., developed a process to allow management to compare a-wide variety of global exploration opportunities on a uniform and consistent basis. Over the next five years, theprocess evolved into an effective method to plan exploration programson a basis of value incorporating prospect ranking, budget allocation, and technology management. The final product is a continuous processand includes, within a single organizational unit, the integration ofgeologic risk assessment, probabilistic distribution of prospect hydrocarbon volumes, engineering development planning, and prospect economics. The process is based on the concepts of the play and hydrocarbon system. Other steps of the process (geologic risk assessment, volumetric estimation, engineering support, economic evaluation, and postdrillfeedback) are considered extensions of fundamental knowledge and understanding of the underlying geological, engineering, and fiscal constraints imposed by these concepts. A foundation is set, describing the geologic framework and the prospect in terms of the play concept-source, reservoir, trap (including seal), and dynamics (timing/migration). The information and data from this description become the basis for subsquent steps in the process. Risk assessment assigns a probability of success to each of these four elements of the play concept, and multiplication of these probabilities yields the probability of geologic success. A well is considered a geologic success if a stabilized flow of hydrocarbons is obtained on test. Volumetric estimation expresses uncertainty in a distribution of possible hydrocarbon volumes for the prospect constructed from ranges of parameters obtained from information specific to the prospect, and data described by the parent play concept. With this distribution, engineering support provides development scenarios for three cases-a pessimistic case (10%), the mean, and an optimistic case (90%). Economic evaluation is run for each of the three cases, thus providing a range of economic consequences of the geological, engineering, and fiscal framework. Commercial risk is based on the results of this evaluation, and overall probability of success is the multiplication of the probability of geologic success and probability of commercial success. Postdrill feedback determines whether the individual processes are providing predicted results consistent with actual outcomes.

ASDD Area Sistemi Dipartimentali e Documentali, Università di Bologna, Catalogo delle riviste ed altri periodici
Documento generato il 04/07/20 alle ore 21:04:19