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Titolo: Coping with ignorance: unforeseen contingencies and nonadditive uncertainty
Autore: Ghirardato, P;
 Indirizzi:
 CALTECH, Div Humanities & Social Sci, Pasadena, CA 91125 USA CALTECH Pasadena CA USA 91125 nities & Social Sci, Pasadena, CA 91125 USA
 Titolo Testata:
 ECONOMIC THEORY
fascicolo: 2,
volume: 17,
anno: 2001,
pagine: 247  276
 SICI:
 09382259(200103)17:2<247:CWIUCA>2.0.ZU;27
 Fonte:
 ISI
 Lingua:
 ENG
 Soggetto:
 EXPECTED UTILITY; SUBJECTIVEPROBABILITY; RISKAVERSION; REPRESENTATION; PREFERENCES;
 Keywords:
 unforeseen contingencies; underspecified decision problem; belief functions; choquet integrals; pessimism index;
 Tipo documento:
 Article
 Natura:
 Periodico
 Settore Disciplinare:
 Social & Behavioral Sciences
 Citazioni:
 37
 Recensione:
 Indirizzi per estratti:
 Indirizzo: Ghirardato, P CALTECH, Div Humanities & Social Sci, Pasadena, CA 91125 USACALTECH Pasadena CA USA 91125 l Sci, Pasadena, CA 91125 USA



 Citazione:
 P. Ghirardato, "Coping with ignorance: unforeseen contingencies and nonadditive uncertainty", ECON THEORY, 17(2), 2001, pp. 247276
Abstract
In reallife decision problems, decision makers are never provided with the necessary background structure: the set of states of the world, the outcome space, the set of actions. They have to devise all these by themselves. I model the (static) choice problem of a decision maker (DM) who is aware that her perception of the decision problem is too coarse, as for instance when there might be unforeseen contingencies. I make a "bounded rationality"assumption on the way the DM deals with this difficulty, and then I show that imposing standard subjective expected utility axioms on her preferencesonly implies that they can be represented by a (generalized) expectation with respect to a nonadditive measure, called a belief function. However, the axioms do have strong implications for how the DM copes with the type of ignorance described above. Finally, I show that some decision rules that have been studied in the literature can be obtained as a special case of the model presented here (though they have to be interpreted differently).
ASDD Area Sistemi Dipartimentali e Documentali, Università di Bologna, Catalogo delle riviste ed altri periodici
Documento generato il 09/04/20 alle ore 07:39:32