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Titolo:
Coping with ignorance: unforeseen contingencies and non-additive uncertainty
Autore:
Ghirardato, P;
Indirizzi:
CALTECH, Div Humanities & Social Sci, Pasadena, CA 91125 USA CALTECH Pasadena CA USA 91125 nities & Social Sci, Pasadena, CA 91125 USA
Titolo Testata:
ECONOMIC THEORY
fascicolo: 2, volume: 17, anno: 2001,
pagine: 247 - 276
SICI:
0938-2259(200103)17:2<247:CWIUCA>2.0.ZU;2-7
Fonte:
ISI
Lingua:
ENG
Soggetto:
EXPECTED UTILITY; SUBJECTIVE-PROBABILITY; RISK-AVERSION; REPRESENTATION; PREFERENCES;
Keywords:
unforeseen contingencies; underspecified decision problem; belief functions; choquet integrals; pessimism index;
Tipo documento:
Article
Natura:
Periodico
Settore Disciplinare:
Social & Behavioral Sciences
Citazioni:
37
Recensione:
Indirizzi per estratti:
Indirizzo: Ghirardato, P CALTECH, Div Humanities & Social Sci, Pasadena, CA 91125 USACALTECH Pasadena CA USA 91125 l Sci, Pasadena, CA 91125 USA
Citazione:
P. Ghirardato, "Coping with ignorance: unforeseen contingencies and non-additive uncertainty", ECON THEORY, 17(2), 2001, pp. 247-276

Abstract

In real-life decision problems, decision makers are never provided with the necessary background structure: the set of states of the world, the outcome space, the set of actions. They have to devise all these by themselves. I model the (static) choice problem of a decision maker (DM) who is aware that her perception of the decision problem is too coarse, as for instance when there might be unforeseen contingencies. I make a "bounded rationality"assumption on the way the DM deals with this difficulty, and then I show that imposing standard subjective expected utility axioms on her preferencesonly implies that they can be represented by a (generalized) expectation with respect to a nonadditive measure, called a belief function. However, the axioms do have strong implications for how the DM copes with the type of ignorance described above. Finally, I show that some decision rules that have been studied in the literature can be obtained as a special case of the model presented here (though they have to be interpreted differently).

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Documento generato il 09/04/20 alle ore 07:39:32