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Titolo:
A multistep automatic calibration scheme for river forecasting models
Autore:
Hogue, TS; Sorooshian, S; Gupta, H; Holz, A; Braatz, D;
Indirizzi:
Univ Arizona, Dept Hydrol & Water Resources, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA Univ Arizona Tucson AZ USA 85721 & Water Resources, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA NOAA, Natl Weather Serv, N Cent River Forecast Ctr, Chanhassen, MN USA NOAA Chanhassen MN USA rv, N Cent River Forecast Ctr, Chanhassen, MN USA
Titolo Testata:
JOURNAL OF HYDROMETEOROLOGY
fascicolo: 6, volume: 1, anno: 2000,
pagine: 524 - 542
SICI:
1525-755X(200012)1:6<524:AMACSF>2.0.ZU;2-R
Fonte:
ISI
Lingua:
ENG
Soggetto:
RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODELS; SHUFFLED COMPLEX EVOLUTION; GLOBAL OPTIMIZATION; PARAMETER OPTIMIZATION; ALGORITHMS;
Tipo documento:
Article
Natura:
Periodico
Settore Disciplinare:
Physical, Chemical & Earth Sciences
Citazioni:
37
Recensione:
Indirizzi per estratti:
Indirizzo: Hogue, TS Univ Arizona, Dept Hydrol & Water Resources, Bldg 11,Room 122, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA Univ Arizona Bldg 11,Room 122 Tucson AZ USA 85721 , AZ 85721 USA
Citazione:
T.S. Hogue et al., "A multistep automatic calibration scheme for river forecasting models", J HYDROMETE, 1(6), 2000, pp. 524-542

Abstract

Operational flood forecasting models vary in complexity. but nearly all have parameters for which values must be estimated. The traditional and widespread manual calibration approach requires considerable training and experience and is typically laborious and time consuming. Under the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction System modernization program. National Weather Service (NWS) hydrologists must produce rapid calibrations for roughly 4000 forecast points throughout the United States. The classical single-objective automatic calibration approach, although fast and objective, has not received widespread acceptance among operational hydrologists. In the work reported here. University of Arizona researchers and NWS personnel have collaborated to combine the strengths of the manual and automatic calibration strategies. The result is a multistep automatic calibration scheme (MACS) that emulates the progression of steps followed by NWS hydrologists during manual calibration and rapidly provides acceptable parameter estimates. The MACS approachwas tested on six operational basins (drainage areas from 671 to 1302 km(2)) in the North Central River Forecast Center (NCRFC) area. The results were found to compare favorably with the NCRFC manual calibrations in terms ofboth visual inspection and statistical measures, such as daily root-mean-square error and percent bias by flow group. Further, implementation of the MACS procedure requires only about 3-4 person hours per basin, in contrast to the 15-20 person hours typically required using the manual approach. Based on this study, the NCRFC has opted to perform further testing of the MACS procedure at a large number of forecast points that constitute the Grand River (Michigan) forecast group. MACS is a time-saving, reliable approach that can provide calibrations that are of comparable quality to the NCRFC`s current methods.

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Documento generato il 29/11/20 alle ore 10:24:30