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Titolo:
Extreme daily rainfall events and their impact on ensemble forecasts of the Indian monsoon
Autore:
Stephenson, DB; Kumar, KR; Doblas-Reyes, FJ; Royer, JF; Chauvin, E; Pezzulli, S;
Indirizzi:
Meteo France, Toulouse, France Meteo France Toulouse FranceMeteo France, Toulouse, France Univ Rome La Sapienza, Dipartimento Studi Geoecon Stat Stor Anal Reg, Rome, Italy Univ Rome La Sapienza Rome Italy eoecon Stat Stor Anal Reg, Rome, Italy
Titolo Testata:
MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW
fascicolo: 9, volume: 127, anno: 1999,
pagine: 1954 - 1966
SICI:
0027-0644(199909)127:9<1954:EDREAT>2.0.ZU;2-T
Fonte:
ISI
Lingua:
ENG
Soggetto:
SUMMER MONSOON; CLIMATE MODEL; GRID-BOX; VARIABILITY; RESOLUTION; STATION;
Tipo documento:
Article
Natura:
Periodico
Settore Disciplinare:
Physical, Chemical & Earth Sciences
Citazioni:
61
Recensione:
Indirizzi per estratti:
Indirizzo: Stephenson, DB Univ Toulouse 3, Lab Stat & Probabil, 118 Route Narbonne, F-31062 Toulouse, France Univ Toulouse 3 118 Route Narbonne Toulouse FranceF-31062
Citazione:
D.B. Stephenson et al., "Extreme daily rainfall events and their impact on ensemble forecasts of the Indian monsoon", M WEATH REV, 127(9), 1999, pp. 1954-1966

Abstract

The Indian summer monsoon rainfall is the net result of an ensemble of synoptic disturbances, many of which are extremely intense. Sporadic systems often bring extreme amounts of min over only a few days, which can have sizable impacts on the estimated seasonal mean rainfall. The statistics of these outlier events are presented both for observed and model-simulated daily rainfall for the summers of 1986 to 1989. The extreme events cause the wet-day probability distribution of daily rainfall to be far from Gaussian, especially along the coastal regions of eastern and northwestern India. The gamma and Weibull distributions provide good fits to the wet-day rainfall distribution, whereas the lognormal distribution is too skewed. The impact of extreme events on estimates of space and time averages can be reduced by nonlinearly transforming the daily rainfall amounts. The square root transformation is shown to improve the predictability of ensemble forecasts of the mean Indian rainfall for June 1986-89.

ASDD Area Sistemi Dipartimentali e Documentali, Università di Bologna, Catalogo delle riviste ed altri periodici
Documento generato il 27/11/20 alle ore 04:34:05