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Titolo:
International monetary arrangements in the Asia-Pacific region
Autore:
Chinn, MD; Dooley, MP;
Indirizzi:
Univ Calif Santa Cruz, Dept Econ Social Sci 1, Santa Cruz, CA 95064 USA Univ Calif Santa Cruz Santa Cruz CA USA 95064 1, Santa Cruz, CA 95064 USA
Titolo Testata:
PACIFIC REVIEW
fascicolo: 2, volume: 12, anno: 1999,
pagine: 291 - 317
SICI:
0951-2748(1999)12:2<291:IMAITA>2.0.ZU;2-M
Fonte:
ISI
Lingua:
ENG
Soggetto:
CRISES; RATES;
Keywords:
speculative attacks; capital flows; exchange rates; productivity; tradables; non-tradables; purchasing power parity; interest rate parity;
Tipo documento:
Article
Natura:
Periodico
Settore Disciplinare:
Social & Behavioral Sciences
Citazioni:
37
Recensione:
Indirizzi per estratti:
Indirizzo: Chinn, MD Univ Calif Santa Cruz, Dept Econ Social Sci 1, Santa Cruz, CA 95064 USA Univ Calif Santa Cruz Santa Cruz CA USA 95064 ruz, CA 95064 USA
Citazione:
M.D. Chinn e M.P. Dooley, "International monetary arrangements in the Asia-Pacific region", PAC REV, 12(2), 1999, pp. 291-317

Abstract

This paper first examines the literature on speculative attacks on fixed and managed exchange rate regimes, and discusses these models in the contextof the recent turmoil in Asia-Pacific currencies. Since these speculative attacks are more likely to be successful when financial markets are well integrated, it then assesses the degree of financial market integration in the region. Then the behavior of the exchange rate is examined. A model for aproductivity-based explanation for real exchange rate behavior is described. Using sectoral output and employment data, relative prices and relative productivity levels are calculated for China, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand. When examining real exchange rates and relative productivity ratios, one identifies the positedrelationship for Japan, Malaysia, the Philippines and, when augmenting theregressions with real oil prices, Indonesia and Korea. Then the roles of monetary and real factors are compared using quarterly data. While there is some evidence that monetary factors are important, sensible estimates are obtained only when an indicator variable for relative prices of non-tradables versus tradables is included. The importance of sectoral productivity differentials in real exchange rate determination in combination with widely diverging rates of productivity growth among the Asia-Pacific economies, as well as the recent spate of successful speculative attacks, suggest that attempts to manage medium- to long-term exchange rate movements will have to be very carefully thought out.

ASDD Area Sistemi Dipartimentali e Documentali, Università di Bologna, Catalogo delle riviste ed altri periodici
Documento generato il 27/10/20 alle ore 10:16:55