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Titolo:
USING COMPUTER-MODELS TO PREDICT PREVENTION POLICY OUTCOMES
Autore:
HOLDER HD;
Indirizzi:
PREVENT RES CTR BERKELEY CA 00000
Titolo Testata:
Alcohol health and research world
fascicolo: 4, volume: 20, anno: 1996,
pagine: 252 - 260
SICI:
0090-838X(1996)20:4<252:UCTPPP>2.0.ZU;2-P
Fonte:
ISI
Lingua:
ENG
Soggetto:
EXPERIENCE; COMMUNITY; DRINKING; CRASHES;
Keywords:
COMPUTER TECHNOLOGY; SCIENTIFIC MODEL; PREVENTION PROGRAM; PREVENTION STRATEGY; PROGRAM EVALUATION; ARREST; DRINKING AND DRIVING; STATISTICAL ESTIMATION; RISK ASSESSMENT; TRAFFIC ACCIDENT; PUBLIC POLICY ON AOD;
Tipo documento:
Article
Natura:
Periodico
Settore Disciplinare:
Physical, Chemical & Earth Sciences
Citazioni:
21
Recensione:
Indirizzi per estratti:
Citazione:
H.D. Holder, "USING COMPUTER-MODELS TO PREDICT PREVENTION POLICY OUTCOMES", Alcohol health and research world, 20(4), 1996, pp. 252-260

Abstract

Computer simulation, or modeling, can illuminate the potential costs and effects of policy alternatives. The SimCom (Simulated Community) model has been under development for more than a decade and has been increasingly successful in simulating the effects of alcohol prevention policy. A recent application of SimCom to a northern California community's prevention efforts projected the results of an intervention designed to change the perceived risk of arrest for driving under the influence. SimCom simulated the effect of this intervention on the rate ofalcohol-involved injury crashes and was able to generate crash estimates for 1993 to 1995 that later closely matched actual data for the same period. Statistical analyses of the northern California (i.e, experimental) site compared with data from a matched comparison site showedsignificantly fewer crashes in the experimental community. Although the complexity of computer models may present many more data collection, communication, and technical challenges than traditional policy research, with further refinement, computer simulations are likely to become vital components of prevention efforts to reduce alcohol-related problems.

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Documento generato il 24/09/20 alle ore 21:22:22