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Titolo: FORMULATION OF GAUSSIAN PROBABILITY FORECASTS BASED ON MODEL EXTENDEDRANGE INTEGRATIONS
Autore: DEQUE M; ROYER JF; STROE R;
 Indirizzi:
 METEO FRANCE,CTR NATL RECH METEOROL,42 AV CORIOLIS TOULOUSE FRANCE
 Titolo Testata:
 Tellus. Series A, Dynamic meteorology and oceanography
fascicolo: 1,
volume: 46,
anno: 1994,
pagine: 52  65
 SICI:
 02806495(1994)46:1<52:FOGPFB>2.0.ZU;2H
 Fonte:
 ISI
 Lingua:
 ENG
 Tipo documento:
 Article
 Natura:
 Periodico
 Settore Disciplinare:
 Science Citation Index Expanded
 Science Citation Index Expanded
 Citazioni:
 NO
 Recensione:
 Indirizzi per estratti:



 Citazione:
 M. Deque et al., "FORMULATION OF GAUSSIAN PROBABILITY FORECASTS BASED ON MODEL EXTENDEDRANGE INTEGRATIONS", Tellus. Series A, Dynamic meteorology and oceanography, 46(1), 1994, pp. 5265
Abstract
A sample of 40, 44day winter forecasts is used to investigate the predictability of 850 hPa temperature over Europe. These forecasts exhibit a significant skill when averages of day 5 to day 14 and day 15 to day 44 are considered. This skill is, however, very close to that of the trivial climatology forecast. A probability forecast is performed, using a gaussian density with the deterministic forecast for the mean,and the climatological standard deviation (SD). The rank probability score (RPS) of such a forecast is better than, but again very close to, that of the probabilistic climatology forecast. The categorical forecast is also studied as a limit case when the SD is zero. The RPS is minimal when using the conditional probabilities of the verification analyses, but the results are not widely improved when robust estimates are used. The results could be widely improved if we used a suitable SD in our forecasts. However, the attempts to predict a priori the optimal SD lead to nonsignificant results. The best available probabilityforecast, in our local gaussian approach, uses, for the mean, the regression of the verification analyses by the model forecasts, and, for the SD, a scaled climatological SD.
ASDD Area Sistemi Dipartimentali e Documentali, Università di Bologna, Catalogo delle riviste ed altri periodici
Documento generato il 27/11/20 alle ore 09:38:59